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OSCARS BALLOT  BRAD PITT as a man who ages in reverse in "TheCurious Case of Benjamin Button," Jim's favorite among the nominated Best Picture contenders. But does he think it's going to win the Oscar? |
Jim's predictions,faves
aren't always the same
of TheColumnists.com
Here's my explanation for the plummeting popularity of TV’s marathon telecasts of the annual Oscars marathon: We’ve seen it all before.
There are the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild awards, newsclips of the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Awards and every other film awards show out there. And now, at last, the Academy Awards--the 81st annual edition.
The telecast in the U.S. will be on ABC,
as usual, starting at 5 p.m.. on the West Coast and 8 p.m. on
the East Coast.
No matter how many others already have given out their awards,
attention must be paid to the Academy Awards. They're the big
ones that really count. And they've been around since May 16,
1929, when the awards for 1927-28 were presented at a dinner
at the Roosevelt Hotel in Hollywood. They'll go on and on next
Sunday night with tears aplenty (particularly if Kate Winslet
wins).
Here’s a handy dandy film ballot complete
with my predictions in the major categories:
BEST PICTURE: Nominees are "The Curious Case of Benjamin
Button," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk," "The
Reader" and "Slumdog Millionaire."
SHOULD WIN: Call me a contrarian but I thought "The Curious
Case of Benjamin Button" the best of the nominated pictures.
"Milk" is a brilliant political tract that skillfully
rewrote Harvey Milk’s life and got away with it. "Frost/Nixon"
played better as a theater piece.
MISSING IN ACTION: I felt "Revolutionary Road" the
year’s best English language movie but it never even got
a nomination.
WILL WIN: "Slumdog Millionaire," a terrific picture,
has been overpraised and may have already peaked. Remember how
"Atonement" took a bucket of nominations but failed
to win anything last year. However, "Slumdog Millionaire"
already has best picture nods from the Golden Globes, National
Board of Review, New York Film Critics. Still, an upset by "Benjamin
Button" remains a possibility.
BEST ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married"),
Angelina Jolie ("The Changeling"), Melissa Leo ("Frozen
River"), Meryl Streep ("Doubt"), Kate Winslet
("The Reader").
MISSING IN ACTION; Kate Winslet couldn’t be nominated twice
in the same category but I feel her performance in "Revolutionary
Road" stronger than "The Reader." But the best
female performance I saw this year was Michelle Williams in "Wendy
and Lucy."
CAVEAT: I haven’t caught Melissa Leo ("Frozen River").
Has anybody? Of course or how could she have been nominated?
SHOULD WIN: Strongest of the four is Anne Hathaway in "Rachel
Getting Married." And she took the National Board Of Review
award as best actress. Can she overcome the Winslet juggernaut?
WILL WIN: This is Kate Winslet’s year but just maybe she
won’t get it. I mean can anybody tolerate one more weepy,
incoherent outburst by Winslet. Remember Meryl Streep took The
Screen Actors Guild award as best actress, an indication she
remains vastly popular among the actual voters (Winslet won a
SAG award as best supporting actress).
BEST ACTOR: Richard Jenkins ("The Visit"), Frank Langella
("Frost/Nixon"), Sean Penn ("Milk"), Brad
Pitt ("Benjamin Button"), Mickey Rourke ("The
Wrestler").
SHOULD WIN: Until last week I thought Penn’s marvelous turn
as gay councilman Harvey Milk was tops. I still think Penn's
great and he’s obviously having a lot of fun. Then I watched
with amazement Frank Langella’s creepy turn as Richard Nixon
and was transfixed. Behind the facade of getting all the Nixonian
twitches down pat Langella imbues his character with empathy
and flashes of true insight. So I say he’s the best.
CAVEAT: I haven’t seen Richard Jenkins. No one I know has
seen Jenkins in "The Visitor" except editor Ron Miller.
And I have defiantly refused to see "The Wrestler"
because Rourke looks so bad–on the weekend I’ll finally
relent and go and see him.
WILL WIN: This is a real horserace. Penn took the New York Film
Critics. Rourke was the winner at the Golden Globes, a reminder
people really like an underdog. Langella has been doing the talk
show rounds. I still feel the momentum is with Sean Penn. Sorry
about that, Frank and Mickey. Better luck next time.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Josh Brolin ("Milk"), Robert Downey
Jr. ("Tropic Thunder"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt"),
Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight"), Michael Shannon ("Revolutionary
Road").
SHOULD WIN: Brolin was at his best in "Milk." And he
also scored this year as "W". Michael Shannon shook
up "Revolutionary Road" with brilliant scenes as a
mentally disturbed mathematician.
WILL WIN: The late Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
seems to be the overwhelming fave. And voters might also favor
a nod to a movie that entertained such a vast legion of cinemagoers.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams ("Doubt"), Penelope Cruz
("Vicky Cristina Barcelona"), Viola Davis ("Doubt"),
Taraji P. Henson ("Benjamin Button"), Marisa Tomei
("The Wrestler").
SHOULD WIN: I thought Amy Adams gave the best performance of
the four nominated actors in "Doubt." But Viola Davis
might take votes away from her.
WILL WIN: Penelope Cruz’s nomination in the supporting category
is a cagey way for her to win the Oscar. She really should have
been nominated as Best Actress. And she should win something.
She’s beautiful, talented and very sexy.
BEST FOREIGN FILM: "Der Badeder Meinhof Complex," "The
Class," "Departures," "Revanche," "Waltz
With Bashir."
SHOULD/WILL WIN: I’ve only seen one of the nominees: "The
Class." And that’s all I needed to see. "The Class"
was the best movie I’ve seen this year in any language,
an absolute must-see.
BEST DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, Stephen
Daldry, Danny Boyle.
SHOULD/WILL WIN: I just feel "Slumdog Millionaire"’s
Danny Boyle will win in a squeaker. How could you not vote for
this film that almost got released directly to DVD?
MISSING IN ACTION: Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino). Or did voters
figure the old guy had already won enough?
©2009 by Jim Bawden. The photo of Brad Pitt is courtesy of Paramount and Warner Bros. This column first posted Feb. 16, 2009.
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