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and DOUG WILLIS |
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LET'S DREAM THE IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!
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Brace for it, political fans: A brokered convention!
By DOUG WILLIS and CHUCK McFADDEN
of TheColumnists.com
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The following contains material known to TheColumnists.com to cause spasms, eye-rolling, circular conversations and scornful guffaws among political junkies. |
Could it happen?
Could it really happen?
We’re asking about the possibility--just a possibility,
mind you--that the race for the Democratic and Republican presidential
nominations might--just might--still be undecided by the time
the conventions roll around in August.
That would mean, friends, a return to those golden days of yesteryear,
when dealmakers gathered in rooms (they won’t be smoke-filled
this time) to decide who would be each party’s choice to
try for the big brass ring.
It could happen. Some 95 per cent of the convention delegates
have not yet been selected.
Let’s say, on the Democratic side,
that Sen. Hillary Clinton takes the South Carolina primary with
its 45 delegates by a whisker on Jan. 26. And then comes super-duper
Tuesday on Feb. 5, when 22 states hold their primaries. Hillary
takes California; Sen. Barack Obama takes his home state of Illinois.
The remaining 20 states more or less split their delegates between
Obama, Clinton and former senator John Edwards.
It all depends on whether there is a clear leader, and therefore
a bandwagon effect, going into Feb. 5. And if there is no bandwagon
going into Feb. 5, several candidates could, as outlined above,
win substantial numbers of delegates that day and continue to
be viable in the later primaries.
It’s less likely to happen in the Democratic primaries,
since it appears--appears--to be narrowing down to a two-candidate
race. The way it looks now, either Clinton or Obama will probably
have a conclusive majority prior to the convention. But if they
are still very close in delegates, the balance of power could
be in the hands of party leaders (those smokeless room inhabitants)
who are uncommitted (read: wheeler-dealers) delegates.
The man of the hour then may be Edwards, who as a third-place
finisher could own a substantial number of delegates he could
throw to either Obama or Clinton, putting one or the other over
the top.
Think of what that could do for Edwards’ career. It could
be really big, maybe even snare the Democratic nomination for
vice president for Edwards.
The brokered convention scenario, however, is more likely among
Republicans. They may go into the Feb. 5 primaries with four
viable candidates and wake up Feb. 6 still looking at three or
four candidates with substantial blocs of delegates and good
reasons to continue the race.
Interestingly in such a Republican scenario, the nation’s
most populous state, California, may have dealt itself out of
a potential kingmaker role by abandoning its statewide winner-take-all
rules.
California has only 11 GOP delegates in a statewide winner-take-all
pot, plus three party leaders who are uncommitted delegates.
The remaining 159 are winner-take-all by congressional districts,
which is almost certain to split California's delegates into
substantial blocs for several candidates. It’s easy to imagine
Mike Huckabee winning a lot of Central Valley and other rural
districts, Rudy Giuliani winning most Bay Area and LA urban districts
or splitting them with John McCain, and Mitt Romney splitting
San Diego, Orange and other SoCal strongholds with McCain.
To delve even more deeply into arcane possibilities, winner-take-all
by congressional district should help Giuliani and maybe McCain,
who will need fewer votes to win three GOP delegates in a heavily
Democratic district than Romney or Huckabee may need to win three
delegates in a strong GOP district.
In addition to that, most of California’s population growth
since the 2000 census has been in GOP districts. The most extreme
examples are in Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 8th Congressional
District of San Francisco, where only 10 percent of the voters
(about 35,000) are Republicans, and in Republican John Doolittle's
nearby 4th Congressional District, where 47 percent of the voters
(about 200,000) are Republicans. It will take about six times
as many votes to win three GOP delegates in the 4th District
as it will to win three GOP delegates in the 8th District.
Strangely, California Democrats, who usually are as disorganized
and self-destructive as the Republicans, avoided that pitfall.
They have winner-take-all delegate elections by congressional
districts, too, but the number of delegates per district varies
with population. But they make up for that very sensible fix
by designating nearly three times as many uncommitted delegates.
Remember, though, that what we have here is some political speculation.
As anyone knows, at this time of year, political speculation
is in really short supply. Right? Are you there?
Nevertheless, a brokered convention is possible. And it will
come on top of the topsy-turvy, surprise-ridden, roller-coaster
ride that we’ve been on so far.
Political junkies, welcome to heaven.
©2008 by Charles M.
McFadden and Doug Willis. The illustration is from IMSI's
Master Clips Collection, 1895 Francisco Blvd. E., San Rafael,
CA, 94901-5506, USA.
This column first posted Jan. 21, 2008.
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